National Instability Causes Bump in Job Recovery

CHICAGO – The Illinois seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for July increased to 9.5 percent as 24,900 fewer jobs were reported, according to preliminary data released today by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Illinois Department of Employment Security (IDES). The data reflects uncertainty in consumer confidence and the volatility associated with data management.

July is the third consecutive month to record an increase in the unemployment rate following 15 consecutive months of declines. Including the preliminary job loss, Illinois has added 28,900 jobs so far this year and 72,200 jobs since January 2010, when job growth returned to Illinois after 23 consecutive months of declines.

“This preliminary data reflects the recent volatility in the national economy and the uncertainty both in the labor force and business community,” IDES Director Jay Rowell said. “Although monthly data fills our need for immediacy, long-term data tells a more accurate story.”

Uneven monthly reports of job growth and unemployment rates are common in a typical recovery. However, to ensure more reliable national statistics, federal authorities earlier this year implemented methodological changes to data estimation that reduces input from individual states. As a result, there have been greater fluctuations in monthly jobs and employment data at the state level. How those changes might be reflected in July’s data will not be known for several months. Most private economists agree that the recovery from the national recession will continue, but at a more gradual pace in the second half of the year.

The uneven progress is evident in the job growth numbers. Since January 2010, Illinois has added, on average, about 3,800 jobs each month. In the first half of this year, Illinois added about 9,000 jobs each month. By contrast, during the national recession, Illinois lost, on average, 18,000 jobs each month.

Since January 2010 when Illinois employment resumed after the national recession, Illinois has added +72,200 net new jobs. Leading sectors are Professional and Business Services (+34,200); Educational and Health Services (+26,000); Manufacturing (+20,000); Trade, Transportation and Utilities (+16,000).  Compared to last year, Manufacturing employment is up +11,300 over its July 2010 level.

In July, the number of unemployed individuals increased 24,300 (4.0 percent) to 627,800. Total unemployed has declined -112,300 (-15.2 percent) since January 2010 when the state unemployment rate peaked at 11.2 percent. The unemployment rate identifies those who are out of work and seeking employment. A person who exhausts benefits, or is ineligible, still will be reflected in the unemployment rate if they actively seek work.
 
The IDES supports economic stability by administering unemployment benefits, collecting business contributions to fund those benefits, connecting employers with qualified job seekers, and providing economic information to assist career planning and economic development. It does so through nearly 60 offices, including Illinois workNet centers.

Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates

Illinois Seasonally Adjusted Non-farm Jobs – by Major Industry

Notes:

• Illinois monthly labor force, unemployed and unemployment rates for years 2006-2010 have been revised as required by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. In February of each year, monthly labor force data for all states are revised to reflect updated Census population controls, seasonal factors, non-farm jobs and unemployment insurance claims inputs. Data were also smoothed to eliminate large monthly changes as a result of volatility in the monthly household (CPS) survey. Comments and tables distributed in prior Illinois unemployment rate news release materials should be discarded because any analysis, including records, previously cited might no longer be valid.
• Seasonally adjusted employment data for subsectors within industries are not available.  For not seasonally adjusted jobs data with greater industry detail, go to http://lmi.ides.state.il.us/cesfiles/cescurrent.htm.
• “Other Services” includes a wide range of activities in three broad categories: Personal and laundry; repair and maintenance; and religious, grant making, civic and professional organizations.
• Monthly seasonally adjusted unemployment rates for Illinois and the Chicago-Naperville-Joliet Metropolitan Division are available at:  http://lmi.ides.state.il.us/laus/icmaur.htm.